The decisive decade for humanity’s future on earth
November 19th 2021. EHF Mini-Springboard Session Roundup: Behind the scenes reflections from COP26 and the key priorities for Aotearoa New Zealand. Speakers include:
EHF Fellow, journalist and facilitator Rod Oram
Hillary Laureate Johan Rockström - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
EHF Fellow and Secretary for the Environment, Vicky Robertson.
Watch the full recording of the session here.
Executive summary: key takeouts from this session
COP26 - the grounds for hope
The term ‘climate emergency’ is not a phrase spoken lightly.
We only have eight or nine years of emissions left at our current rate before we hit the critical global warming ceiling of 1.5 degrees. This is a present and as immediate danger to global society as the covid pandemic. Going into COP26 there was a 50% likelihood that we could not land at less than 2.7 degrees celsius agreement between nations.There is cause for hope.
COP26 for the first time demonstrated consensus on where we need to get to: the debate is now on how to get there and timing. There was also, for the first time, alignment between political, industry and financing stakeholders.From ‘disaster’ to ‘danger’
Taking all commitments collectively, we have a pathway from ‘disaster’ to ‘danger’ - from 2.7% to a potential 1.9%. It is a significant global accomplishment. The challenge now is delivering and maintaining momentum. Achieving 1.9% means all countries deliver in full their commitments and fulfil all pledges. Every country is urged to update their commitments annually.NZ has an opportunity to show leadership
We have the opportunity to take a broader systems perspective in a sustainable and transformative way - this requires win/win outcomes for human wellbeing, economy, jobs.
The Challenge for Aotearoa
This decade we need to be dealers in hope driven by action.
New Zealand’s commitment is to 50% reduction by 2030 to get to net zero emissions by 2050. Critically this includes a 30% methane reduction by 2030 - for Aotearoa this comprises about half of our emissions due to our dependence on agriculture.NZ has a strong framework and architecture
A zero carbon act that sets domestic targets for the country.
An independent climate commission that advises on policy and budget, pathways using existing technology, and monitors how we are going.
Unlocking loans - green bonds - for sustainable action.
First country to introduce mandatory disclosure requirements on business on climate risk - investigating what this will look like for directors.
But much must be done if we are to achieve our targets. Practically, this means:
Shifting people out of cars.
Making the shift to renewable energy for all of the transport sector.
Creating a waste strategy for methane reduction.
Completing the transition away from heavy reliance on coal power.
Being clear on how we fund and finance climate change adaptation and getting clear on who is responsible for what, at a local vs national level.
Critically, our approach to agriculture is still too light.
Our legislative backstop on agricultural emissions comes into force in 2025 - although this is only 5%.
We have not cracked the approach to methane, or regenerative agriculture. More work is needed on land use change and how this impacts our food system generally.
The NZ Government is now consulting on an emissions reductions plan for the next 15 years.
Call to action for EHF Fellows: Don’t wait for the middle to move. Lean into the ‘edge’ and create change that people can see and feel and understand that a better way is possible. This is what we are most uniquely placed to do.
Reflections from COP26 from Johan Rockström
“It’s really important to be absolutely calibrated before having any reflections on COP26,” Johan opened. “With the sixth assessment of the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change], the tremendous advancements in biodiversity research, the intergovernmental panel on biodiversity-consistent services and all of the advancements of research on tipping points, there’s no other conclusion than what has been drawn up by so many scientific colleagues around the world: we are not only in a climate crisis, we have a planetary emergency.”
The agreed definition of an emergency, Johan said, is risk multiplied by lack of time, with risk being equivalent to probability times impact. “Even low-probability occurrences can have high risk if the impacts are unacceptable such as, for example, having 2m sea level rise for low-lying neighbouring countries to New Zealand; [those countries] disappearing is an unacceptable impact, so even a probability below 1% would be a high risk. I would even call it a catastrophic risk.”
These studies of environmental risk go back decades, Johan said, but the scope and the speed of those risks has increased exponentially over the past 4 IPCC assessments. Back in 2001, it was thought “that really, really catastrophic risks would only occur at 5 or 6 degrees Celsius of global warming, which basically meant that the risk assessment from science was that that was a non-existent risk with very low probability. Nobody was suggesting that we were heading for 5 or 6 degrees of global warming. That’s a place that we haven’t been for the last 8 or 9 million years.” In the decades since, that figure has been reduced to a much more concerning 2 degrees.
“The catastrophic risk threshold is now uncomfortably close, very close to the Paris [Agreement] range, actually. If you then combine that with the IPCC6 assessment, the conclusion is that, for our remaining global carbon budget to have any chance of a safe landing of about 1.5 degrees, we can emit only 400b tonnes of carbon dioxide. This translates to only 9.5 years of remaining emissions at our current rate of fossil fuel burning. You’re talking then of time having run out.”
This state of ‘planetary emergency’ is not hyperbolic, Johan said, but rather an accurate, scientific assessment of where we are now. Of the 15 big, biophysical systems which regulate the state of our global environment - things like the overturning of heat in the North Atlantic and the Amazon Rainforest - Johan said that the scientific community now has evidence that 9 are showing signs of instability which could lead them to a tipping point for the first time in 12,000 years.
“This is the moment. This is our last chance to align all countries’ plans with science. Of course, we can’t solve the climate crisis at a climate negotiation, but this was the moment - 6 years after Paris - to close the books on all the outstanding issues of the Paris Agreement.” Delegates walked into COP26, Johan said, with the planet on a quantified path to disaster. The objective of the negotiations there was to downgrade that urgency from ‘disaster’ to ‘danger’. “We went from a 2.7 [degree temperature rise] pathway to a potential 1.9 degree Celsius pathway. That is still in the red embers range but is, of course, a significant accomplishment. Glasgow was a very significant step forward.”
Johan did add the proviso that the safer, but still dangerous, 1.9 degree temperature rise calculation is very optimistic, as it requires all of the countries present at COP26 to deliver exactly what they’ve promised with regards to pledges on major climate change contributors such as methane, deforestation and coal. Additionally, all countries must deliver in full on promised net-zero pathways and emission reduction targets by 2030, many of which are not legally bound to the discussions at COP26. “Going from a 2.7 to a 1.9 pathway means bending the global curve on emissions and it means starting to follow the path that New Zealand has put itself towards: a roughly 50% reduction of emissions by 2030; continuing to cut emissions in half each decade to have a net-zero point around 2050.
The four largest-emitting regions in the world - the United States, the European Union, China and India - have all set net-zero pathways, Johan said.
“The pledges that are now on the table are quite remarkable. We now have an agreement from 100 countries around the world committed to halting deforestation by 2030, New Zealand being one of them… The methane pledge - which New Zealand also joined - for a 30% reduction in methane emissions by 2031 includes 90 countries and two thirds of the global economy, which is also significant… Over 40 countries committed to phasing out coal.”
There is reason to be skeptical, of course, and some major players are missing from each of these commitments, perhaps most notably the reluctance by the Indian government to pledge a pathway to completely eliminate fossil fuels but, overall, Johan said he was hopeful.
“For the first time, at least in my experience, countries aren’t battling over the direction of travel. The direction of travel is the Paris Agreement. We’re battling now over the speed by which we’re moving towards the goal.”
The other promising anomaly, he noted, was the volume of Chief Officers present at COP26, from SMEs to big, multinational corporations. This represented, he noted, a global shift in market, innovation and finance towards environmentally positive initiatives.
“New Zealand can really help here and be one of those countries that can show an alignment with science and updating [Nationally Determined Contributions] regularly. You have ambitious plans, but they need to be really aligned with a 50% per decade halving of emissions and to be even more forthcoming on the phase-out of coal. I understand that you actually have a trajectory towards increasing the import of coal, rather than decreasing. So there are, of course, improvements needed to be done.
“How does all of this connect with planetary boundary science? It connects in a very profound way, because we know that there is no safe Paris landing only by phasing out fossil fuels; we also need to secure the natural carbon sinks in nature, all the tipping elements, and transition the global food source from being the single largest source [of emissions] to being a sink.”
Priorities and opportunities in Aotearoa NZ
Johan then handed over to Vicky Robertson who highlighted New Zealand’s unique opportunity to view these issues not just as a climate change issue for us, but as a systems change issue that needs to happen. “On land, the things that we do to help with our climate change outcomes also help with our Nitrogen outcomes, our biodiversity and our water-quality outcomes.”
“As a small country, we can think in that systems way and I think that’s one of the opportunities EHF Fellows can step into in helping us to come to some solutions there.”
“I try to be optimistic, because I think we need to be dealers in hope that we can actually crack this in the next decade… We have a strong architecture in New Zealand that I’m starting to see really get us on the right track for climate action; our architecture with a zero-carbon act which sets domestic targets for the country. We also have the Climate Commission, an independent body which provides advice on what our budgets should be to meet those targets and monitors how we’re going and plays a role in adaptation as well.”
With the first round of advice back from the Climate Commission, the New Zealand Government is now in consultation on an emissions reduction plan, Vicky said. “That plan will set out what’s needed in the next 15 years, and it’s not just what the government needs to do. This is going to be a whole-of-society effort… We need a plan and an action that brings everybody along. The impacts of climate change will disproportionately fall on different parts of the community, the vulnerable parts of our community, Māori and Pasifika in particular, and others that we cannot afford. We shouldn’t ignore the need to bring them along on the journey and make sure we make change happen that allows them to be part of that.”
New Zealand is the first country to include mandatory disclosures of climate risk, Vicky said, which represents a dynamic shift in the conversations Boards will be having about the financial repercussions of climate change. “That is a significant shift, I think, and will impact at Board-level across the country. We also have sought legal opinions through The Aotearoa Circle around the liability of Directors for climate risk. Again, this is a shift from an academic exercise to: it’s here, it’s now and we need to have plans and actions in place.”
The Aotearoa Circle has also been providing guidance around sustainable finance including loans for sustainable action and green bonds through Treasury. “For the first time we’ve got an agreement to the hypothecation of ETS [Emissions Trading Scheme] revenue. That is a significant shift in approach to tax revenue. It’s not going to be enough to meet our climate action plans, but it’s a significant change in mindset and recognition that this is an emergency in New Zealand.”
Vicky highlighted opportunities for Fellows to lead the change with innovations in key sectors including transport, energy, waste and agriculture. “The big agriculture opportunity in New Zealand is in cracking the approach to methane. There’s a question there about how you do that. I think, at some point, we’ll also need to think about land use change… We currently have a back-stop in legislation - in 2025, Agriculture comes into the ETS for its emissions, but it comes in that legislative back-stop at 95% free allocation, so only 5%. So that all comes in in 2025; if that will happen, we’ll be the first in the world to put a price on agriculture emissions.” That back-stop, Vicky said, is being explored in the context of other options which could give farmers better incentives to curb emissions and increase the reduction percentage.
When pressed on the Ministry’s current lack of ocean-specific reform, Vicky replied that “the dance card of change, at the moment, across a number of fronts is quite large… There’s a feeling at the ministerial level, with COVID, that the ability for our constituent communities to engage on another big issue might be too much. So what they’ve decided to do is work on some specific things on oceans in this term of government.”
There’s a significant role, Vicky said, for innovators who sit outside of New Zealand’s larger, bureaucratic structures.
“I’ve always been an advocate of EHF Fellows really leaning in to the edge and creating change that people can see and feel and not be then afraid of making the shift. If you don’t, people have nothing to fill the vacuum with, so they fill it with fear.”
Exploring solutions for the urban and natural worlds
The session was then opened up for wider discussion, with two tiers of breakout discussion which focused on climate change in the context of urban New Zealand and, separately, how we can and should respond in our natural ecosystems.
With respect to Aotearoa’s natural landscapes, our oceans were highlighted as both a challenge and a resource. With sea level rise imminent for many of New Zealand’s coastal communities, participants highlighted the urgent need for consultation, legislation, guidance and future-proofing to prepare New Zealanders for climate change adaptation in the decades ahead. On the flip side, with significant potential as carbon sinks as well as the opportunity for sustainable fisheries to disrupt New Zealand’s current reliance on ruminant agriculture, participants noted that our oceans present one of the most significant and unique opportunities for Aotearoa to lead the way on climate change action.
Through the urban lens, there was strong interest in the exploration of the concept of the 15-minute city, an urban transformation initiative built on the concept of micro-cities where everything residents need for their daily lives can be reached in a 15-minute walk or bike ride. Participants also highlighted the need to shift the concept of city infrastructure as purely physical elements to an integrated network of systems: social cohesion, natural systems and individual accountability for lowering emissions. The need for embedded circular economies was stressed with initiatives which, for instance, are using existing waste streams to produce food or reduce water consumption. A priority for community ownership models was strong, as was the need for a changed approach to housing. Ultimately, participants agreed that when communities are able to own their own environmental outcomes, much larger visions can be imagined and realised.
“Countries like New Zealand are among a handful of countries - together with Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, The Netherlands, Germany - who’ve been trying to really take on board this broader systems perspective of understanding that the climate landing is about a global sustainability transformation,” Johan said, in conclusion.
“And we have to find ways of doing this in an exponential, transformative way because of the speed of travel, while recognising that this can only be done in ways that give win-win outcomes for health, for human wellbeing, for jobs and for the economy.”
“That’s my plea to every political leader, business leader or group of citizens in the world today: to help and continue developing this narrative that I think the Edmund Hillary Fellowship is entirely on board with. Global sustainability, and sustainability in general, is the very pathway to prosperity and equity. This is the future and it’s the future we want.”
Where to from here?
In this decade of climate action, regardless of what types of businesses or organisations we are building or challenges we are tackling, the impact we make on our planet must be part of our consideration. Ultimately, everything is connected to climate. It is the shared backdrop to the work of our generation.
We will be following up this session in 2022 with more opportunities to connect with EHF Fellows driving specific climate solutions projects and continue to build momentum in this space.
Many EHF Fellows work actively on climate solutions or adjacent contributions in education, storytelling, technology development, data, space, transport, policy or finance. Learn more and connect with Fellows via our directory.